Analysis of the pig price situation this year

At the beginning of the year, the price of piglets and fattening pigs soared all the way, but they began to fall in the second half of the year. In addition, the introduction of environmental protection has put a lot of pressure on pig farmers. In the face of such fluctuations in pig prices, the price of hogs in 2017 will continue. What about the rise? The hog market has continued to decline in the past two days, and as of May 7, the average price of slaughter pigs across the country has created the lowest point in the past year and a half, and the price has approached 14.5 yuan / kg. . The following is an analysis of the current pig price situation this year.

The 2016-2021 Chinese hog industry market demand and investment advisory report shows that, as far as the demand side is concerned, we have felt the bleakness of consumption since entering February, and from the slaughter data of the large slaughterhouses, the slaughter volume has not significantly It can be said that the consumer side has not boosted the strength. Moreover, the demand for pork enters the off-season of consumption. I am afraid that slaughtering companies will find it difficult to show a large amount of frozen meat. Moreover, imported pork is also continuously imported.

In April, the big pigs were concentrated on the slaughter and made two declines. The two lowest points of production also had the credit of big pigs and cattle and pigs, which is the basis for slaughtering companies to successfully lower prices. It can be said that the weight of pigs has increased significantly since this period. Because farmers are afraid to easily expand the pens and the cost of feed is not high before, it is considered that it is more cost-effective to raise cattle, which is more common in pig farms this year. The slow down of pig prices in 2017 is the overall situation, but farmers raise cattle and pigs very well, which has created risks for the seller's market.

The price of hogs climbed all the way, and pig farmers naturally cheered. But it should also be understood that today's good market also means that the crisis in the pig market has arrived. At present, the timetable for the decline in pig prices has been determined, and the phenomenon of overheating in the supplementary pen has appeared. If the average price of pigs this year has been maintained at more than 9 yuan, the probability of a significant decline in pig prices in 2017 is even greater.

The real opportunity of the pig cycle only exists in the alternating period of the pig cycle, and the risk of the pig cycle exists in the period when the pig price is the highest. Then it seems that it is difficult to seize this opportunity with a large number of supplementary columns, and may even meet the downtrend. At the same time, the high price of piglets has raised the cost of rearing pigs in the market, which poses a great risk for pure fattening households. Therefore, farmers must always be alert to the coming of market risks and rationally expand production.

Although overheating of pigs and the approach of high pig prices have already led to an implicit downside risk in the pig market. However, the rise in hog prices cannot be stopped in the short term. Because the increase in sow stocks does not represent a recovery in pig supply, it also indicates that pig prices have peaked. There is only one reason, that is, the supply gap still exists, and the supply side continues to dominate the rise in pig prices.

The current tight pig market capacity is still the main style, and pig supply will continue to be tight. On the one hand, this situation supports the farmers' reluctance to sell, on the other hand, it reduces the feasibility of slaughtering companies to reduce prices and enhances the possibility of price increases. It can be concluded from this that the current hog supply gap is still the most fundamental factor leading the trend of pig prices. Regardless of whether the hot weather is waning or the stock of meat is put in various regions, whether it is a supply-demand game or an increase in imported meat, it is difficult to cause a fundamental impact on the pig market and a substantial decline in the short term.

最 The most direct consequence of high prices and high profits in the pig industry is the expansion of scale. 2017 is no exception. The price of piglets is a good example. The high price of piglets is caused by the decline in the number of sows and the supplementary pen. However, with the emergence of a large number of supplementary pens, the price of piglets will increase, which will increase the cost of breeding and increase the risk of breeding.

In addition to piglets supplementing sows, sow supplementation has also gradually increased and is accelerating, and sow prices are constantly reaching new highs. The most direct impact of the increase in sow fills is that the current supply of dual sows is in short supply, and the scarcity of sows will increase the supply of piglets to a certain extent, which will in turn promote the price of piglets. In this way, it entered a cycle of vicious boost.

According to data, nearly half of the pig farmers have already completed or are about to fill up. High profits have also spurred massive influx of social capital. In addition to the expansion of production by some leading breeding companies in the industry, other companies and even foreign capital have a tendency to move.